If you look at this past week, you’ll see we’re way off last year’s sales numbers. But there’s reason for it…last year, the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit was expiring and wasn’t going to be renewed. So, almost everyone who was going to buy in 2010, bought in the spring…and then…BOOM! sales crashed. Take a look at this graph…over the last 5 or so years, from the real estate market’s peak to it’s current state, each year had a similarly shaped graph…going up in the spring-peaking in the summer-ending low during the holidays and winter. But look at 2010. A very different shape due to the Tax Credit. So what will 2011’s shape look like…certainly not like 2010. How how will 2011 compare to 2009 or 2008? (click play or next to watch presentation).
Here’s what the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors says:
Weekly Market Activity Report The gap between current and year-ago listing activity continues to widen, as anticipated. Expect the supply-side numbers to show sizable year-over-year declines due to the high baseline set during the spring 2010 tax credit. It should be noted that we are now approaching a period where we’ll be comparing the 2011 non-tax credit market to the 2010 tax credit market at its peak level.
For the week ending February 19, there were 690 signed purchase agreements, which made for a 12.1 percent decline from the same week last year. There were 1,367 New Listings for the week, representing a 25.4 percent decline from a year ago. Active Listings, at 21,642, have been holding steady since the beginning of the year due to subdued seller activity coupled with fairly reliable sales volumes. That marked a 3.3 percent decline from year-ago inventory levels.
A more meaningful comparison is to look back at 2009 and 2008 and avoid tax credit stimulated activity. This week’s 690 Pending Sales fall right in between 2008 and 2009 numbers. While that is less buyer activity than we would like, it does provide hope for the future. If you’d like to see the full report, visit the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.